'Bubble may be far from bursting': Capital Economics says S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end of next year (2024)

FAQs

'Bubble may be far from bursting': Capital Economics says S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end of next year? ›

But, for now, we are sticking to our view that this one will inflate through the end of next year. Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania.

The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).

Meanwhile, the median streak of positive returns can extend to 17 months with a gain of 14%, based on historical data. That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025.

S&P 500 Forecast 2026-2030

These five years would bring an increase: S&P 500 value would move from 6,778 to 10,254, which is up 51%.

Traders work on the floor during morning trading at the New York Stock Exchange on March 6, 2024. Despite the heavy concentration of the U.S. market rally in expensive, AI-focused tech stocks, analysts say Wall Street is not yet in bubble territory.

S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end-2025, says Capital Economics.

Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.

The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.

Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 9.5% in 2024 after increasing around 4% in 2023, LSEG data showed. But valuations have risen along with stock prices.

Combining insights from five separate methodologies, Goldman thinks investors in US stocks can expect average annualized total returns (i.e. including not just share price growth but dividends and buybacks) of 6% – with a 70% chance of returns between 2% and 11%.

What is the expected return of the S&P 500 in the next 10 years? ›

Optimistic: 6%-7% per year.

If you assume margins and P/E multiples will remain at their current high level, and expect sales and buybacks to grow at their historical rates, then you can anticipate making about 6% in returns per year over the next decade.

He forecasts Tesla stock to gain about 550% to hit $1,200 a share by 2030, and for SpaceX to triple in valuation over the same period, according to a recent interview conducted by Bloomberg. Baron runs the Baron Focused Growth Fund, which counted Tesla and SpaceX as its largest holdings as of December 31, 2023.

The S&P 500 carries market risk, as its value fluctuates with overall market performance, as well as the performance of heavily weighted stocks and sectors. For example, the technology sector performed poorly in 2022 and was a large contributor to the index's correction that year.

U.S. economy grew at 1.6 percent annual rate in first quarter 2024, a sharp slowdown. U.S. economic growth slowed in the first three months of the year, with gross domestic product growing at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent, as consumers began gradually pulling back.

"2024 is bound to be a better year for homebuyers, if only because of how terrible 2023 was," says John Graff, CEO at Ashby & Graff Real Estate. Graff anticipates falling interest rates and increasing inventory could result in more opportunities for homebuyers in the months ahead.

The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.

Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 9.5% in 2024 after increasing around 4% in 2023, LSEG data showed.

Fortunately, analysts see positive earnings and revenue growth for all eleven market sectors this year. The healthcare sector is expected to generate a market-leading 17.8% earnings growth in 2024, while the information technology sector is expected to lead the way with 9.3% revenue growth.