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Warren Buffett famously dubbed derivatives as "financial weapons of mass destruction" due to the systemic risks they pose. These complex and opaque instruments continue proliferating globally, making it critical to shed light on their dangers.
The Multi-Quadrillion Dollar Derivatives Market
Derivatives are legal contracts that derive value from an underlying asset, benchmark, or event. The underlying reference could be stocks, bonds, commodities, interest rates, mortgages, currencies or even events like weather or sports outcomes.
Derivatives allow parties to place speculative bets on whether the price or occurrence of the underlying asset will rise or fall over a period of time. Major types of derivatives include futures, forwards, options and swaps. But countless variations have been engineered to "derive" value from almost anything imaginable.
The sheer scope of the derivatives market is staggering. According to the Bank of International Settlements, the notional value of all outstanding global derivatives contracts reached an astonishing $2.5 quadrillion by the end of 2022. This figure is equivalent to over 30 times the worldwide GDP.
However, notional value only reflects the hypothetical amounts referenced in derivatives contracts. The real amount at risk - the gross market value - is far lower at around $15 trillion globally. Nonetheless, this remains a huge market, and its immense complexity obscures accumulating dangers.
Too Interconnected and Opaque to Unwind
In theory, derivatives disperse financial risk by allowing it to be sliced up and spread among market participants. But in practice, the web of interconnections creates systemic fragility.
If markets face shocks, linkages between derivatives counterparties can set off cascading defaults as losses and margin calls reverberate through the system. Legendary investor Warren Buffett struggled to unwind a modest-sized derivatives position when conditions were relatively calm and orderly.
In a crisis, counterparties might be unable or unwilling to pay out on their derivative obligations. These hidden risks would suddenly be revealed as defaults spiral out of control. The system's opacity means the actual risk is larger than it appears on the surface.
Rather than provide insurance during downturns, complex derivatives would amplify the crisis. And the convoluted entanglements mean sorting out claims could take decades of dragging legal battles.
Perverse Incentives Encourage Excessive Risk-Taking
The perception that derivatives disperse risk gives a false sense of security. In reality, they often encourage reckless speculation and leverage across the financial ecosystem. Players take on risks assuming they have "hedged away" potential downsides when, in fact, the risk is spread around and obscured.
Financial innovation also led to derivatives like synthetic collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). These allowed speculators with no underlying mortgage exposure to bet on homeowners defaulting. Such "side bets" distort market pricing and capital flows for no productive economic purpose.
More transparency, reporting, collateral, and alignment of risks and incentives are required to contain the systemic threat.
Surging Interest Rate Swaps in Canada
Canada highlights the hidden fragilities in the ballooning global derivatives markets. Interest rate swaps have doubled to a notional value of $18 trillion over the past decade, according to Canada's central bank. This equals a staggering 7 times Canada's GDP.
These swaps allow banks and companies to hedge risks from rate moves ostensibly. However, opaque interconnected swap exposures could rapidly cascade across Canada's financial system in a crisis. The resulting blowups would quickly spill over into consumer lending and the real economy.
Ironically, derivatives designed to mitigate risks could trigger the very crisis they claimed to protect against. Canadian banks and businesses using swaps to hedge borrowing costs would be directly impacted by any market meltdown, along with the broader economy.
Tighter Regulation Remains a Tightrope
After 2008, regulations forced some over-the-counter derivatives onto exchanges and clearinghouses. This added more transparency and reporting. However, oversight still lags in equity markets, and gaps remain.
New issuance continues growing exponentially in both scale and complexity. Speculators now place bets on everything imaginable, with notional value reaching as high as $3 quadrillion per some estimates.
Reining in destabilizing derivatives requires striking a balance between proper monitoring and allowing beneficial financial innovation. Tighter control can also push more derivatives into unregulated shadows. Walking this tightrope remains tremendously difficult for regulators.
In summary, demystifying and bringing accountability to these opaque and proliferating instruments should be an urgent priority. Otherwise, the financial weapons of mass destruction that Warren Buffett warned about may wreak even more havoc on stability and prosperity than the 2008 crisis.
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