Apple (AAPL) stock went into a funk after hitting an all-time closing high in the middle of December, but it's hard to feel too bad for long-term shareholders. AAPL was still up more than 40% over the past year in early January.
Besides, it's still by far one of the best stocks of all time.
A disappointing fiscal third-quarter earnings report sparked a mid-summer selloff in Apple stock, as market participants fretted over the iPhone maker's third consecutive year-over-year drop in quarterly revenue. Apple beat Wall Street's earnings and revenue forecasts for its fiscal fourth quarter too, but overall sales declined for a fourth quarter in a row.
Shares in Apple rallied hard into the end of 2023 along with the other Magnificent 7 stocks, but a couple of analyst downgrades to Apple stock the first week of 2024 sparked another round of weakness.
Bulls say you should buy the dip in Apple stock, which has put the company's market capitalization back below $3 trillion. And while the latest stumble is certainly no fun for anyone who came to the Apple party late, as noted above, it's tough to have much pity for truly long-time shareholders. After all, they've enjoyed pretty much incomparable returns over the past few decades.
From January 1990 through December 2020, AAPL stock created $2.67 trillion in shareholder wealth, or an annualized dollar weighted return of 23.5%, according to an analysis by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.
Indeed, per Bessembinder's findings, which account for a stock's increase in market value adjusted for cash flows in and out of the business and other adjustments, Apple was the best stock in the world over those 30 years.
True, AAPL stock traded sideways for the first few years of the 21st century, but an explosion of innovation soon put an end to that. Under the visionary leadership of the late Steve Jobs, Apple essentially reinvented itself for the mobile age, launching revolutionary gadgets such as the iPod, MacBook and iPad.
But what really set Apple on its course to becoming the world's largest publicly traded company – and one of hedge funds' favorite blue chip stocks — was the 2007 debut of the iPhone.
Today, Apple isn't just a purveyor of gadgets; it sells an entire ecosystem of personal consumer electronics and related services. And it's a sticky ecosystem at that.
No less an eminence than Warren Buffett has called the iPhone maker Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) "third business," noting Apple fans' fantastic brand loyalty as one reason for being all-in on the stock. (Apple accounts for almost 39% of the value of the Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio.)
No wonder the iconic tech firm was tapped to become one of the elite 30 Dow Jones stocks. In 2015, Apple replaced AT&T (T) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The bottom line on Apple stock?
(Image credit: YCharts)
Over the past 20 years Apple stock generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 37%. By comparison, the S&P 500 delivered an annualized total return of 9.6% over the same span.
What does that look like on a brokerage statement? Check out the above chart and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in Apple stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth almost $530,000. The same $1,000 invested in the would have theoretically turned into $6,186 over the same period.
For those wondering if Apple stock is a buy at current levels, Wall Street mostly thinks so. Of the 45 analysts covering AAPL surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 20 rate it at Strong Buy, seven say Buy, 14 have it at Hold, three say it's a Sell and one calls it a Strong Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with mixed conviction.
More Stocks of the Past 20 Years
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If You'd Put $1,000 Into Amazon Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today
If You'd Put $1,000 Into Nvidia Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today
If You'd Put $1,000 Into Netflix Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today
If You'd Put $1,000 Into Microsoft Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today
If You'd Put $1,000 Into Adobe Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today
What does that look like on a brokerage statement? Check out the above chart and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in Apple stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth almost $530,000. The same $1,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have theoretically turned into $6,186 over the same period.
If you had invested $1,000 in Apple stock on Feb. 4, 1997, today, you would have $1,343,269. Likewise, if you had invested $1,000 in an index fund replicating Nasdaq, you would have $11,038. A similar $1,000 investment in an index fund that replicates the S&P 500 would be worth $6,140.
Buying $1000 In MSFT: If an investor had bought $1000 of MSFT stock 20 years ago, it would be worth $16,279.07 today based on a price of $413.00 for MSFT at the time of writing.
Ten years ago, at market close on March 28, 2014, Apple's stock was trading at $16.85 per share. This means that $100,000 invested in Apple in March 2014 would be worth more than $1 million today.
Apple, the world's largest company with a $2.81 trillion market cap, has grown at over 25% CAGR in the past decade. Based on the S&P 500's historical 11.1% ROI, Apple's stock could reach $1,093 by 2040 and $3,140 by 2050.
But if you were smart enough to invest $1,000 in Apple stock at the start of the year 2000, you'd be sitting on a monster gain of 21,230%. This means that modest investment would be worth a whopping $213,000 today (as of July 27).
What does that look like on a brokerage statement? Check out the above chart and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in Apple stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth almost $530,000. The same $1,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have theoretically turned into $6,186 over the same period.
The table below shows the present value (PV) of $1,000 in 20 years for interest rates from 2% to 30%. As you will see, the future value of $1,000 over 20 years can range from $1,485.95 to $190,049.64.
Have a look at the above chart and you'll see that if you put a grand into MSFT stock two decades ago, today it would be worth more than $24,000. The same amount invested in the S&P 500 20 years ago would theoretically be worth almost $6,500 today.
For example, if an investment scheme promises an 8% annual compounded rate of return, it will take approximately nine years (72 / 8 = 9) to double the invested money.
Those gains translate to a 36.6% compound annual growth rate for Apple compared to a 7.4% CAGR for the S&P 500 in that time. That means that $10,000 in AAPL stock purchased 20 years ago would be worth about $5.08 million today, assuming reinvested dividends.
These three are gigantic trillion-dollar companies today, but they weren't always that large. Apple debuted on the public markets in 1980. If you invested $1,000 in the company, then your investment would now be worth nearly $1.5 million.
Apple has 18.20% upside potential, based on the analysts' average price target. Is AAPL a Buy, Sell or Hold? Apple has a conensus rating of Moderate Buy which is based on 16 buy ratings, 10 hold ratings and 2 sell ratings.
Had you invested $1,000 in Microsoft 10 years ago, you would have turned a hefty profit by today. According to computations by CNBC, that modest amount would already have been worth $11,400 as of Nov. 9, 2023.
As a result, Apple's stock remains an attractive addition to a diversified portfolio. Its significant cash reserves and potent brand make it an excellent option to hold over many years, as one does when preparing for retirement.
Jake Lerch (Apple): A relatively modest investment of $10,000 in Apple when Steve Jobs returned to the company in February 1997 would have grown to more than $14 million today. AAPL total return level data by YCharts. Most of that astonishing return can be chalked up to the iPhone.
Introduction: My name is Dan Stracke, I am a homely, gleaming, glamorous, inquisitive, homely, gorgeous, light person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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