Techniques to Pick Winning Stocks - Oddball Wealth (2024)

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Picking strong companies to buy shares of stock can seem difficult especially with the current market being as inflated as it is. Finding individual stocks to buy at a discount is possible by sticking to the fundamentals. This means finding well-established companies that have been around for many years with good track records of past success.

Many people become emotional investors and buy whatever the media is selling them. They hear in the news and media a stock is taking off, so they decide to buy shares in that company and then the stock’s market value drops. Emotional investors often buy high and sell low. Here I’ll explain some quick tips on how to pick stocks by looking at their intrinsic value and by sticking to the fundamentals.

10-Year History of a Company

1. Book Value Per Share

The book value of a common share of stockis what, you, the shareholder would be paid after the company paid off all their debts and liquidated any of their assets. Examining a stock’s book value per share can be helpful in finding out whether or not we should buy the stock.

What I do is look at the book value per share of a stock from the past 10 years leading up to the present. As I do this I look to see if the book value increases or decreases and if there were any dramatic drops in the book value during those years. If a share’s book value decreased in many of the years that’s a red flag or any large drops in the book value in select years could be a sign the company is not stable. If a stock’s book value has steadily increased each year this is a good sign and what we’re looking for! Generally I look to see if the book value per share has remained steady or consistent throughout those ten years to determine if the company is stable.

Also, determine how much the book value amount changed each year from the preceding year. Then add up the change in value for each of the 10 years to find the total increase in book value per share for the 10-year period.

2. Dividends

Look to see a trend in the 10-year dividend history. A good company would be one whose dividend steadily increased throughout the 10-year period. It’s uncommon of a good company and a bad sign if a stock’s dividend decreased during that 10-year period and should be investigated.

3. Earnings Per Share (EPS)

While examining a stocks 10-year history, also check the EPS. The EPS should have remained consistent or increased during the stock’s 10-years. If the EPS decreased consistently during the 10-years that’s another red flag.

When looking at the 10-year data on a company’s Book Value per Share, Dividends, and Earnings per Share what we’re doing is determining if that company stable. Look for red flags by examining if any of those values have noticeably large declines or jump up and down during the 10-year period.

These values can be found by going to www.morningstar.com and clicking on the “stocks” tab and the top of the page and typing the company’s stock ticker symbol into the “quote” search bar. From there click on the “Key Ratios” tab and it’ll bring up the key ratio page with data and ratios from the past 10-years, if you scroll down that page you’ll find the book value per share, dividends, and earnings per share along with other ratios.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

The debt-to-equity ratio is calculated by taking a company’s Total Liabilities Divided by Shareholders Equity. These figures can be found in the company’s balance sheet. You can either look at the annual balance sheet or the quarterly balance sheet. I like to calculate the annual and quarterly debt-to-equity ratio to determine their debt-to-equity in the last year and their quarterly debt-to-equity lets me know how they’re doing currently. This is an important ratio in determining how much debt a company has compared to their equity.

A simple example, if XYZ Company had:

  • Total Liabilities: $50,000
  • Shareholder’s Equity: $100,000
  • We would then take $50,000 / $100,000 = 0.5
  • XYZ’s Debt-to-Equity Ratio is 0.5

In the XYZ example, the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5 means that XYZ Company has half as much debt financing their business as there is shareholder equity. The lower the ratio the better.

After you have found or calculated the debt-to-equity ratio, you want to compare that ratio to other companies’ debt-to-equity ratio in the same industry, or in other words, find the “industry average”. By comparing the debt-to-equity in the same industry, you can decide if the stock you’re looking at buying’s debt-to-equity is high or low. If you determined a company’s debt-to-equity ratio is high for its industry it’s probably a stock you want to stay away from.

Boom! We just went over some quick and simple tips on valuing a stock! Another great ratio to help you determine the value of company and whether to buy a stock, is the Current Ratio which I’ll go over in another article. If you have any questions on how to find a company’s 10-year summary on Book Value per Share, Dividends, and Earnings per Share; or on how to find or calculate the Debt-to-Equity Ratio feel free to email me. My contact information can be found by clicking on the “About the Author” tab at the top of the home page.

Thanks for Reading!

Techniques to Pick Winning Stocks - Oddball Wealth (2024)

FAQs

What is the best strategy for picking stocks? ›

Pick an industry that interests you, and explore the news and trends that drive it from day to day. Identify the company or companies that lead the industry and zero in on the numbers. Note that stock picking as a strategy often underperforms passive indexing, especially over longer time horizons.

What is the best formula for picking stocks? ›

Price to Earnings Ratio

Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) is the ratio of EPS to the company's share price. The trick here is to invest in companies with a P/E Ratio of 9.0 or less. Companies that sell for low prices compared to EPS are often undervalued, meaning the value should increase.

What is the top down approach to picking stocks? ›

Top-down investing focuses on the macro factors of the economy, such as GDP, before examining micro factors such as specific sectors or companies. Top-down can be contrasted to bottom-up investing, which prioritizes the performance and fundamentals of individual companies before going to macro factors.

What is the formula for picking stocks? ›

P/E Ratio – The P/E ratio is a calculation that evaluates a stocks relative performance and value. It is computed by dividing the stock's price by the company's per share earnings for the most recent four quarters.

What is the 90% rule in stocks? ›

Understanding the Rule of 90

According to this rule, 90% of novice traders will experience significant losses within their first 90 days of trading, ultimately wiping out 90% of their initial capital.

What formula does Warren Buffett use? ›

Earnings Yield Buffett treats earnings per share as the return on his investment, much like how a business owner views these types of profits. Buffett likes to compute the earnings yield (earnings per share divided by share price) because it presents a rate of return that can be compared quickly to other investments.

What is the top bottom strategy in trading? ›

From a technical point of view, a top-down investor first analyzes the trend of the entire market, followed by the trend of the sector, and finally the trend of specific stocks. A bottom-up approach is more like a treasure hunt. One looks at the stocks first, followed by the sector and then the market.

Which option strategy is best for falling stock? ›

Buy a put below the market price: You will make money (after commissions) if the market price of the stock falls below your breakeven price for the strategy. Sell a put at an even lower price: You keep the proceeds of the sale—offsetting some of the cost of the put and taking some risk off the table.

How do you pick the bottom of the stock market? ›

Price and volume are key tools for identifying market bottoms and peaks. When using volume in a downtrend, it's important to look at the downtrend at certain intervals to see how it fits the bottoming scenario. Two key methods for finding volumes involve looking at volume histograms and on balance volume (OBV).

What is a stock picking strategy? ›

A stock pick is when an analyst or investor uses a systematic form of analysis to conclude that a particular stock will make a good investment and, therefore, should be added to their portfolio.

How do you pick a stock for dummies? ›

Ideally, the stock should be a consistent performer with at least three or more years of profitability. You should also make sure the company has rising sales. Finally, make sure the company is selling products or services that will have customer demand and a market for buying in the foreseeable future.

What is the best strategy for buying stocks? ›

Among the best tips of stock trading for beginners, experts and analysts agree that buying low and selling high is a fundamental way to make gains. When share prices fall or dip in the market, this is when you need to buy shares and while the price of shares goes higher up, this is when you have to sell your shares.

What is the best way to predict stocks? ›

A popular method for modeling and predicting the stock market is technical analysis, which is a method based on historical data from the market, primarily price and volume.

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