Is 2024 bear or bull market?
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 0.1% from Thursday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).
Expect a 'bumpy landing' for the economy in 2024—and a 'very bullish' year for stocks, strategists say. No economist or market watcher has a crystal ball. So when it comes to making predictions for the year ahead, many take a conservative stance, making their bull or bear case with a litany of caveats.
But the early days of 2024 swept away this uncertainty as the S&P 500 reached its highest level ever, signaling we've been in bull territory for quite a while -- since the index started rebounding from its bear market low in late 2022.
For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.9% year-over-year in the first quarter and another 9% in the second quarter.
With stock indexes at all-time highs, it seems we are in the midst of a new bull market. While much of the market's recent gains have come from a handful of stocks, the rally has begun to broaden in recent months. Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher.
The updated Dow Jones price prediction for the next 5 years is for the index to trade around 45,000 points. Long Forecast predicts Dow Jones to trade at 39071 points in the first month of 2024 and and advance up to 48,000 points by the end of the year.
| S.No. | Company | Industry/Sector |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Tata Consultancy Services Ltd | IT - Software |
| 2. | Infosys Ltd | IT - Software |
| 3. | Hindustan Unilever Ltd | FMCG |
| 4. | Reliance Industries Ltd | Refineries |
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
What are the best stocks to invest in 2024?
- Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)
- Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY)
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK-B)
- Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
- Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)
- Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG)
A recession in 2024 would burst the biggest stock bubble since the dot-com craze, sending the market down 40%, veteran strategist says. A recession will hit in 2024, according to Paul Dietrich, chief investment strategist of B. Riley.
Bitcoin, it found, is likely to hit an average peak price of $87,875 in 2024, with some experts predicting it will climb as high as $200,000. On the flip side, the average lowest price Bitcoin could hit by the end of 2024, is seen as $35,734, the report said, with some predicting it will fall as low as $20,000.
Experts with the Motley Fool suggest allocating an even higher percentage to stocks until at least age 50 since 50-year-olds still have more than a decade until retirement to ride out any market volatility.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
If we take the 289-day average for bear markets into account, the S&P bear market could end in March 2023, and the S&P 500's could end in July next year. Of course, like all things stock market, there is a ton of uncertainty around the bear market, and it's impossible to predict when it will end for sure.
Our forecasts call for the U.S. economy to grow 1.6% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025. But if the U.S. labor market merely remains as resilient as it has been since late 2020, U.S. growth could be half a percentage point stronger in 2023 and 0.7 point stronger in 2025. The result would be much stronger global growth as well.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
- Tech Still Rules the Roost. Tech continues to dominate in 2024. ...
- Healthcare Crosses New Frontiers. ...
- Clean Energy Charges Up. ...
- Finance — Bringing Future Finance to the Masses. ...
- E-commerce Still Has Room To Run.
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
What is the S&P 500 forecast for 2025?
Capital Economics chief market economist John Higgins predicts the S&P 500 can hit 6,500 by the end of 2025. This outlook is more dependent on the current AI-fueled bubble growing. For now, he maintains the bubble-like trade in the market can bring the benchmark average to 6,500 by the end of 2025.
If you have individual stocks that appear to be underperforming (consistently), it may be time to cut your losses before those losses stack up even higher. However, if you believe the market will recover (which it usually does), you may decide to hold onto your stocks and ride out the waves.
| Year | Prediction | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $ 58.42 | 1.29% |
| 2026 | $ 59.17 | 2.59% |
| 2027 | $ 59.93 | 3.91% |
| 2028 | $ 60.70 | 5.24% |
When the Dow peaked Jan. 4, 2022, the necessary gain was down to 6.33% annualized. As of Dec. 1, after a year of market woes, Morningstar calculates that hitting 116,200 in the fall of 2040 will take a 7.07% annualized gain, which feels like a safe bet.
Is now a good time to invest in stocks? If you're looking to invest for your future -- five, 10, or 40 years from now -- now is as good a time as ever to buy stocks. Despite ongoing recession fears, it's important to remember the market is forward-looking. Stock values are based on future expected earnings.
