How long does a bull market typically last?
3. How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.
How long do bull markets last? A bull market can last more than a decade or a few months. Stocks are in a bull market more often than not. The previous bull market lasted less than two years, starting in March 2020 and ending in January 2022.
| Bull Market Start Date | S&P 500 Return | Bull Market Duration (Days) |
|---|---|---|
| October 2002 | 102% | 1,826 |
| March 2009 | 401% | 3,999 |
| March 2020 | 114% | 651 |
| Average | 184% | 1,964 |
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
Bitcoin Halving appears to be fueling the next bull run to happen in 2024. Investing in the best altcoins can be rewarding as they offer diversification and potentially higher returns. However, it is important to approach the altcoin landscape with caution and do a thorough research.
For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.9% year-over-year in the first quarter and another 9% in the second quarter.
Economic downturn or recession
However, economic indicators can change, and if there are signs of an economic downturn or recession, it can trigger a reversal in market sentiment. Factors such as slowing economic growth, rising inflation, or geopolitical tensions can contribute to the end of a bull run.
Investors who want to benefit from a bull market should buy early in order to take advantage of rising prices and sell them when they've reached their peak. Although it is hard to determine when the bottom and peak will take place, most losses will be minimal and are usually temporary.
Will stock bounce back in 2024?
1. Positive returns -- but smaller than in 2023. I think that the overall stock market will deliver positive returns in 2024. However, I expect those returns to be somewhat smaller than they were last year.
The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.
Analysts Predict 2024 Will Be a 'Stock Picker's Paradise': 4 Stocks To Buy Now To Ride Next Year's Market Upswing. Economists agree — 2024 may be a strong year for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 rose 24% in 2023, according to MarketWatch, and recently crossed the 5,000 mark, according to Barron's.
The bounce-back from the 2008 crash took five and a half years, but an additional half year to regain your purchasing power.
Few would dispute that the crash of 1929 was the worst in history. Not only did it produce the largest stock market decline; it also contributed to the Great Depression, an economic crisis that consumed virtually the entire decade of the 1930s.
In short, the 3-day rule dictates that following a substantial drop in a stock's share price — typically high single digits or more in terms of percent change — investors should wait 3 days to buy.
Our most recent Bitcoin price forecast indicates that its value will increase by 10.22% and reach $78,242 by April 02, 2024.
The Running of the Bulls occurs every July 7th-14th in Pamplona, Spain.
The Last Bull Run: A Recap
The most recent significant bull run occurred in 2020 and extended into the early months of 2021. Cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced a surge in price, reaching unprecedented all-time highs.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
What is the expected return of the stock market in the next 10 years?
Investors' 10 year expected return stood at 7.2% in December 2023, slightly above the reading of 7.0% in October 2023. A second line shows the average stock market return that investors expect over the coming 12 months. The data are shown on an every-other-month basis from February 2017 through December 2023.
Growth in the United States is projected at 2.1% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025, helped by consumers continuing to spend savings built up during the COVID-19 pandemic and easier financial conditions.
With potential economic threats remaining and market uncertainties looming in 2024, investors may still need to have patience before a truly durable bull market can get underway. But that doesn't mean there aren't any opportunities today.
Ideally, as investors see what appears to be the start of a bull market, they might buy stocks, stock mutual funds, and ETFs. As the bull market surges higher, they might consider selling some of their equity holdings. At the very least, they should continue with their normal rebalancing regimen.
On average, bull markets have gained 115% over 2.7 years while bear markets have lost 35% and lasted less than a year. Are we in a bull market? It could take weeks or months for the market to move 20% off a low.
