How long will the stock market bull run last?
How long do bull markets last? A bull market can last more than a decade or a few months. Stocks are in a bull market more often than not. The previous bull market lasted less than two years, starting in March 2020 and ending in January 2022.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
The cycles typically last around four years, peaking and bottoming out within a year of each other. Each major Bitcoin bull run has been followed by a significant drop in price, ranging from 77% to 85%. These declines take approximately a year to reach their bottom after the peak.
How long do bull markets usually last? Historically speaking, the average length of a bull market is 9.6 months. The average gain for a bull market is 112%.
For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.9% year-over-year in the first quarter and another 9% in the second quarter.
Third, many Wall Street analysts predict that the S&P 500 will jump in 2024, but with a lower return than last year. Sure, they're guessing, just as I am. However, they think that moderating inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts should be good for stocks.
The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.
Ideally, as investors see what appears to be the start of a bull market, they might buy stocks, stock mutual funds, and ETFs. As the bull market surges higher, they might consider selling some of their equity holdings. At the very least, they should continue with their normal rebalancing regimen.
Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 10 Years
The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 12.68% over the last 10 years, as of the end of February 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 10-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 9.56%.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
What are the signs of the end of a bull market?
Economic downturn or recession
However, economic indicators can change, and if there are signs of an economic downturn or recession, it can trigger a reversal in market sentiment. Factors such as slowing economic growth, rising inflation, or geopolitical tensions can contribute to the end of a bull run.
The bull market is already well underway
Generally speaking, the best way to be sure about a new bull market is to look for two milestones. First, the market should rise at least 20% from its low. The S&P 500 hit its lowest point on Oct. 12, 2022.
The average stock market return is about 10% per year for nearly the last century, as measured by the S&P 500 index. In some years, the market returns more than that, and in other years it returns less.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
The 2024–25 Outlook
We expect growth to rebound to a 2.0 percent pace by 2025Q1 and stay in that range through yearend. On a Q4-to-Q4 basis, real GDP grows by 1.8 percent during 2024 and 2.2 percent during 2025.
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.
Experts with the Motley Fool suggest allocating an even higher percentage to stocks until at least age 50 since 50-year-olds still have more than a decade until retirement to ride out any market volatility.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
Technology and growth stocks have outperformed in 2023, and analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to rebound in 2024.
| S.No. | Company | Industry/Sector |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Tata Consultancy Services Ltd | IT - Software |
| 2. | Infosys Ltd | IT - Software |
| 3. | Hindustan Unilever Ltd | FMCG |
| 4. | Reliance Industries Ltd | Refineries |
Will the stock market go up in the next 10 years?
The shift up in portfolio returns reflects a 7.4% expected annualized return for U.S. stocks in the next 10 years, up from the 6.5% assumption made last year.
Investors might sell a stock if it's determined that other opportunities can earn a greater return. If an investor holds onto an underperforming stock or is lagging the overall market, it may be time to sell that stock and put the money to work in another investment.
You should always stay on the same side of momentum. So, you can buy high and wait for the stock to go higher; or you can use dips to buy. Either ways, you should never try to outguess the market. In a bull market, the very idea of selling against momentum can land you in big losses.
The key to long-term investing success
Time is your most valuable resource when building wealth in the stock market. So rather than waiting for the ideal time to invest, it's often better to buy now and hold your investments for the long term. Even if you invest at the "wrong" time, it can still pay off over time.
One way to capitalize on the rising prices of a bull market is to buy stocks early on and sell them before they reach their peak. In a bear market, where there is more loss potential, investing in equities should be done with great prudence, since you are likely to incur a loss — at least initially.
